Page type: Glossary / definition
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Meaning
A Most Likely Score is the reasonable number of strokes a player would probably take for a hole that was started but not completed. It includes strokes already taken, penalty strokes, and the strokes most likely needed to finish from the ball's position, subject to the applicable handicap limit.
How it matters in match play
Most Likely Score matters when a match-play hole ends before a player holes out, such as after a concession or when the result is already decided. For handicap posting, the player estimates the strokes needed to finish from the stopping point and adds them to strokes already taken, including penalties. An established Handicap Index player cannot record more than net double bogey for the hole.
Table
| Quick reference | Detail |
|---|---|
| Term | Most Likely Score |
| Category | handicap |
| Applicable rule | WHS Rules of Handicapping, Rule 3.3 (When a Hole is Started But Player Does Not Hole Out) |
| Related concepts | Net Double Bogey, Expected Score, Hole Score, Handicap Index |
Worked example
Alex is lying 4 on the green with a 15-foot putt when Ben concedes the hole; Alex reasonably expects to take two putts, so the illustrative Most Likely Score is 6, unless the applicable net double bogey limit is lower.
Rule reference: WHS Rules of Handicapping, Rule 3.3 (When a Hole is Started But Player Does Not Hole Out)
Sources: www.randa.org , www.usga.org , www.usga.org , www.usga.org
Common questions
When is a Most Likely Score used?
It is used for handicap posting when a player has started a hole but does not hole out, provided the reason is valid under the Rules of Handicapping. Match-play concessions and a hole whose result is already decided are common examples.
How do I calculate a Most Likely Score?
Add the strokes already taken, any penalty strokes, and the number of additional strokes the player would most likely need to finish from the ball's position. The assessment should be reasonable rather than an optimistic or pessimistic guess.
Can a Most Likely Score be higher than net double bogey?
For a player with an established Handicap Index, no. The recorded score for the hole is the Most Likely Score or net double bogey, whichever is lower, as appropriate to the situation and format.
Does a concession automatically give me a score of par?
No. A concession ends the hole in match play, but handicap posting still uses the reasonable score most likely from the point where play stopped, subject to the net double bogey limit. A short conceded putt may make par reasonable; a longer putt may not.
Is Most Likely Score the same as Expected Score?
No. Most Likely Score estimates completion of a hole that was started but not finished. Expected Score is an automated statistical value used for holes not played in an acceptable round when calculating a 9-hole or 18-hole Score Differential.
Is Most Likely Score a match-play scoring result?
No. It is a handicap-posting method, not a separate Match Result or Match Score. The match is settled under its format's rules, while the Most Likely Score supplies a handicap score when a started hole was not completed.